Primary election postmortem: Everybody's happy...

After an afternoon of phone calls and emails with political consultants, campaign managers, etc., it's nothing but day-after sunshine and candies.

Everyone I talked to claimed to be happy -- usually very happy -- with the results. Incumbents said challengers fell short of expectations, and challengers said incumbents should have done better.

"It is clear we are on track for victory," said a memo from Superintendent of Public Instruction candidate Randy Dorn, who so far has gotten 31 percent of the vote in a six-way race.

Across the way, incumbent superintendent Terry Bergeson's campaign was equally pleased with her 36 percent. "By every honest analysis, Dorn suffered a crushing defeat last night," is how campaign guy Alex Hays saw the results. "I was amazed at how well it was for us."

At Lands Commissioner Doug Sutherland's campaign, Todd Myers was "very pleased" with Sutherland's near-tie with Democratic challenger Peter Goldmark. "Four years ago we got 41 percent in the primary," Myers noted. And Sutherland polled about 5 points better than gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi, he said, a fact not meant to knock Rossi but to suggest that Democratic turnout was higher in the primary.

Goldmark's campaign: equally happy. "We're the challenger," said campaign manager Heather Melton. "We've come a long way."

And attorney general? Incumbent Rob McKenna, with 56 percent, called last night to say how pleased he was. Challenger John Ladenburg "is throwing a lot of punches, but he's not landing them," McKenna said.

The Ladenburg campaign's take, with its 44 percent? "The results are good," said campaign manager David Sawyer. "We're at 45 percent without doing a thing. We have nowhere to go but up."

Posted by Rich  |  20 Aug 5:57 PM

Memo to candidates...

If a reporter shows up at some political event, unless you plan on committing felonies or appearing in blackface, it's probably a good idea to welcome the reporter.

It's a lot like when a bee flies into a room. Leave the window open and relax, and the curious bee will eventually get bored and find its way out. Flail around and swat at it, however, and...ouch.

Here are a couple of recent examples of ouches:

Brad Shannon, political editor of The Olympian newspaper, decided he'd like to drop in on a $150-a-head Dino Rossi fundraiser at a private home west of Olympia. Initially, the organizers and Rossi's campaign both said no. Then Rossi said yes but the organizers still said no. Then -- just before the thing started -- the organizers said OK. By then, of course, Shannon had made other plans.

All of which ended up on Shannon's political blog, under the boldfaced headline "Rossi backers bar press at Olympia fundraiser tonight."

Then there was The Stranger's -- see bee analogy above -- visit to the campaign party of Superintendent of Public Instruction Terry Bergeson last night.

In a tough re-election fight, Bergeson and campaign consultant Alex Hays are apparently smarting over the alternative paper's Bergeson-bashing, including comparing her handwriting to a serial killer's.

A "visibly upset" Hays hustled the visitors out of the party and into the hall, where he offered my favorite quote thus far in the 2008 elections cycle:

"This is a place for a party and not for anything else."

Then, the Stranger says, Hays wouldn't let them talk to Bergeson or go back in the room.

All of which, of course, promptly turned into a 362-word post on the Stranger's blog mocking the event: BREAKING: SECB Kicked Out of Bergeson Victory Wake!. And revisiting the handwriting joke, plus new ones.

So far, the Democrats seem to be doing better at these things. When I turned up at a Peter Goldmark fundraiser in Seattle earlier in the campaign, the closest thing to a confrontation was when I had to decline the free tree seedling they wanted to give me. And the Gregoire campaign will be happy to tell you how they welcome even the Republican-Party-hired video cameraman at Gregoire's public appearances.

In fact, it's become almost a running joke: while Rossi's folks have been barring the Democratic video folks from one event after another -- clips which are promptly turned into what-is-he-hiding campaign videos -- Gregoire's have been greeting the Republicans' guy, clearing space for him on the camera platform, and -- I'm not making this up -- giving him a free drink coupon.


Posted by Rich  |  20 Aug 3:24 PM

Last night's results and analysis, in a handy grid...


Can be found here.

Posted by Rich  |  20 Aug 2:39 PM

Meanwhile, on the Palouse...

In the sprawling 9th District, which covers the rolling wheat fields of the Palouse, scrubland farm- and ranch territory to the south and even part of southern Spokane county, Rep. Steve Hailey drew 64 percent of the vote to Democratic challenger Kenneth Caylor's 36 percent. They'll face off again on the November ballot.

In the district's second House seat, incumbent Republican Rep. Joe Schmick got a solid to 62 percent to Democratic challenger Tyana Kelley's 32 percent and 6 percent for the Green Party's Christopher Winter. Kelley and Schmick will be on the ballot in November.

Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 10:51 PM

And another one in the nothing-but-Republicans race for a rural 7th District House seat...

Another very close race to the north, where it looks like Shelly Short and Sue Lani Madsen will face off in November.

The race in the rural northeastern Washington district is a rare five-way legislative battle with only Republicans in the ring. Three of them -- Mike Davis, Peter Davenport, and Kelly White -- did about equally, getting 14 to 17 percent each.

The numbers were equally similar among the apparent top two vote-getters, Short and Madsen. Each got about 26 percent, with Madsen leading tonight by about 60 votes.


Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 10:47 PM

Ahern versus Driscoll: a nail-biter...

Wow.

Both state Rep. John Ahern, R-Spokane, and Democratic challenger John Driscoll are guaranteed a spot on the November ballot, and it looks like it will be quite a race.

The numbers tonight show less than two-tenths of a percent difference between the two. In tonight's two-person faceoff, Ahern's ahead -- barely -- with 11,937 votes to Driscoll's 11,896.

Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 10:39 PM

The R-versus-R battle in the western crescent around Spokane: looks like Parker over Lindauer...

A surprisingly sharp open-seat battle between Republicans Mel Lindauer and Kevin Parker seems to have ended with Parker facing off in November against Democratic incumbent Rep. Don Barlow.

Parker got 28 percent to Lindauer's 21 percent in tonight's returns, a roughly 1,500-vote gap that will be hard for Lindauer to overcome. Barlow, the lone Democrat in the race, got 48 percent. Independent Marcos James Ruiz Jr., an ex-Marine and home health aide who saved for years to pay for the race, got less than 3 percent.

Interestingly, the Republican votes and Democratic votes are nearly equal in this race, suggesting that the next round is going to be pretty fierce as well.


Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 10:36 PM

And Spokane Valley's Legislative District 4...

Sen. Bob McCaslin, R-Spokane Valley, got 57 percent of the vote to Democratic challenger Judi Owens' 43 percent. They'll face off in November.

So will another Republican incumbent, Rep. Larry Crouse, who got 55 percent to Democrat Linda J. Thompson's 45 percent.

But the big race to watch in the 4th was the three-Republican, two-Democrat race to replace retiring Republican Rep. Lynn Schindler.

Schindler's pick, conservative lawyer Matt Shea, outpolled his closest Republican challenger, Diana Wilhite, nearly two to one in tonight's results. (The third Republican, Ray Deonier, got less than 3 percent.) On the Democratic side, Tim Hattenburg easily outdistanced fellow Democrat Anthony Honorof, 36 percent to 3.


Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 10:31 PM

And now, the legislative races: central Spokane's Legislative District 3...

As expected, Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown, D-Spokane, steamrolled independent challenger John Moyna, a night janitor at a hamburger eatery in Spokane. The two will face off again in November, but the early returns show Brown with 78 percent to Moyna's 22 percent.

In the same central-Spokane district, Rep. Alex Wood far outpolled two Republican challengers, 64 percent to their COMBINED 27 percent. But the GOP's Laura Carder and Chris Bowen were in a tight race for who will face off against Wood in November. Bowen led by 1,835 votes to Carder's 1,781.

The final Legislative District 3 seat featured incumbent Democratic state Rep. Timm Ormsby, with 70 percent to the GOP's Mike Novak, with 30 percent. They'll face off again in November, but at this point it seems hard to imagine how Ormby could lose.

Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 10:25 PM

Who the primary favored...

--The Democrats, according to Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna: "Primaries in Washington state invariably favor Democratic candidates," he said by phone earlier tonight.

More voters in Washington call themselves Democrats than Republicans, he reasons, and independents tend to vote less in the primaries.

--The Republicans, according to Kelly Steele, spokesman for the state Democratic Party.

"The primary electorate substantially favored (Rossi)," Steele said. "It's a more conservative electorate, an older electorate."

All of which, he argues, bodes well for Gregoire, a Democrat, particularly in light of expected Democratic voter enthusiasm in the presidential race.

Rossi's "electoral prospects get substantially worse starting tomorrow," Steele said, "when the next ballot has Barack Obama's name at the top of it.

Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 10:17 PM

700,000 votes later, we're about where we started the evening...

Rossi 46 percent, Gregoire 48 percent.

In a press release a earlier this hour, Rossi called that a "strong showing" and pointed out that he got just 34 percent of the vote in 2004. (Note: Although in 2004, Democratic turnout in the primary was spurred by a heated Democratic faceoff between Gregoire and King County Executive Ron Sims.)

Rossi said he's happy with the outcome and looking forward to the next few months. And then came a preview of what we'll hear a lot of between now and November:

“Christine Gregoire sees Washington state the way it is today and she is satisfied. In Christine Gregoire’s Washington our economy is fine, there is no transportation crisis, she is satisfied with the education of our children, and she believes we are safe enough. In the end, Christine Gregoire is so satisfied with how things are today in Washington, that she wants us to have four more years of the same thing. I believe we can and must do better.”

Gregoire's take?

We're feeling good; we take nothing for granted,” Gregoire said in a phone interview from a campaign party in Seattle. “We've got momentum.”

She said she feels the voting suggests that her message of positive results for all Washingtonians is resonating across the state.

Asked if she's disappointed to be polling below 50 percent, she said no, and noted that there were nine other candidates for governor in this primary.

Also, she noted that vote counting will continue for days to come.

“It's not over yet,” she said.

Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 9:44 PM

Not the message you want to see...

From the Secretary of State's election website:

"VOTE.WA.GOV is currently down for system maintenance and should be available shortly. Please check back later."

Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 9:11 PM

Goldmark/Sutherland: Very close

Democrat Peter Goldmark, who's led incumbent Commissioner of Public Lands Doug Sutherland in campaign fundraising for months, is neck and neck with Sutherland: 49 percent to Sutherland's 50 percent. (It's closer than it sounds, due to my rounding of these percentages.)

As expected, urbanites seem to like the Okanogan rancher with a message of sustainable land management. Goldmark is far outpolling Sutherland in King County, and beating him in Spokane and Snohomish counties as well. But Sutherland, a moderate Republican and former Pierce County official, is far ahead in much of rural Washington, as well as Pierce and Clark counties.

As with the attorney general's race below, both these candidates are guaranteed a spot on November's ballot, which will feature the top two candidates in partisan races. But the temptation is strong to view this primary as an indicator of statewide support -- which is why the Rossi and Gregoire campaigns were making hard 11th-hour pushes in the governor's race. Good numbers help fundraising in the final 2 1/2 month stretch.

Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 8:50 PM

Attorney General: Ladenburg has a lot of ground to cover...

In a sharp-elbowed race that's further down the ballot, Pierce County Executive John Ladenburg has some work to do between now and November, it seems. The Democrat is challenging Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna.

So far, Ladenburg's got 43 percent to McKenna's 57 percent.

Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 8:45 PM

More Supremes: The numbers are almost as good for Justice Charles Johnson...

Longtime Justice Charles Johnson is also holding strong over two challengers. Johnson's getting 58 percent to C.F. (Frank) Vulliet's 11 percent and James Beecher's 31 percent.

Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 8:41 PM

State Supreme Court: Fairhurst well ahead of Bond...

Justice Mary Fairhurst, who has one of those seemingly made-for-the-job names, is far outpolling challenger Michael J. Bond. She's got 62 percent so far to Bond's 38 percent.

If Fairhurst keeps her lead above 50 percent -- as with the Superintendent of Public Instruction race I wrote about a few minutes ago -- she's re-elected.

Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 8:39 PM

Rossi's slightly ahead...

Now Rossi's up by a fraction of a percent: 47.49 percent to Gregoire's 46.5 percent.

He's been helped by heavy leads in rural, sparsely populated counties, primarily east of the Cascades. But Gregoire's up by nearly five percentage points in Snohomish County -- a populous battleground in this campaign.

No numbers at all yet from the other population centers: King and Pierce Counties.


Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 8:35 PM

Fackler's gamble: Not paying off...

Curt Fackler, chairman of the Spokane County GOP, made the controversial decision earlier this year to run as a nonpartisan in his second bid for insurance commssioner.

It doesn't seem to be going well. Incumbent Democrat Mike Kreidler's pulling down 52 percent in the early returns. The Republican with the golden name, John Adams, is pulling another 37 percent despite very little actual campaigning. And Fackler trails in nonpartisan limbo with 11 percent so far.

Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 8:30 PM

More early returns: Bergeson well ahead of Dorn so far, but short of 50 percent to win tonight....

Incumbent state Superintendent of Public Instruction Terry Bergeson, seeking a fourth term, is drawing about 44 percent in the first batch of ballots. Her main opponent in a six-way race is Randy Dorn, a former lawmaker and head of a union representing rank-and-file school workers. Dorn's getting 27 percent so far.

Unlike most of the races on the ballot tonight, any candidate who gets more than 50 percent of the vote in the primary essentially wins the office.

Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 8:27 PM

More early returns: Doesn't look good for ChangMook Sohn...

The three-way race for a job few voters have heard about -- state treasurer -- features three strong candidates. State Rep. Jim McIntire, D-Seattle, is running against fellow Democrat ChangMook Sohn, a retired state economist. The sole Republican in the race is Allan Martin, currently deputy treasurer.

The early numbers don't look good for Sohn: 13 percent to McIntire's 39 percent. Martin's at 47 percent.

Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 8:22 PM

And in Spokane...

Gregoire's beating Rossi 48 percent to 45 percent in the earliest returns.

Also, local guy John Aiken Jr. can take heart: among the 8 much-lesser-known contenders for governor, he's currently in the lead, with a statewide 2 percent.

Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 8:17 PM

Earliest returns look a lot like most of the polling did...

Kitsap county wins the prize: first county to file election results in the governor's race tonight. And it's...49 percent for Gregoire, 46 percent for Rossi.

There's a little something for everyone in those results. Rossi can point to Gregoire being below 50 percent, suggesting the incumbent governor is a vulnerable candidate. And like those bumper stickers ("I may be going slow, but I'm ahead of you"), Gregoire can point out that she's still got more votes than he does.

But back to the numbers...Let's see how the night plays out.

Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 8:13 PM

More primary-eve predictions...

More top-two predictions from The Moderate Washingtonian blog, including NE WA races:

(Central Spokane)
3rd House District #1:
Alex Wood [D] 55%
John Waite [I] 19%

(Spokane Valley area)
4th House District #2:
Diana Wilhite [R] 32%
Tim Hattenburg [D] 29%

(A crescent around western Spokane)
6th House District #1:
Don Barlow [D] 47%
Kevin Parker [R] 31%

(much of rural northeastern WA)
7th House District #1:
Shelly Short [R] 38%
Sue Lani Madsen [R] 33%


Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 12:12 PM

Oregonian on WA primary: Rossi "must win Tuesday or come close" to be a viable candidate...

Click here to read it.

Posted by Rich  |  19 Aug 12:08 PM

Nearly one in six state lawmakers unopposed...

Barring effective write-in challenges, lots of state lawmakers are getting a free ride to re-election this year.

Two dozen state lawmakers, including local Sen. Mark Schoesler, R-Ritzville and Rep. Joel Kretz, R-Wauconda, are running without even a token opponent on the ballot.

Among them:
-Rep. Al O'Brien, D-Seattle,
-Rep. Cary Condotta, R-E. Wenatchee,
-Rep. Bill Hinkle, R-Cle Elum,
-Sen. Minority Leader Mike Hewitt, R-Walla Walla,
-Rep. Brendan Williams, D-Olympia,
-Rep. Eileen Cody, D-Seattle,
-Rep. Sharon Santos, D-Seattle,
-Rep. Dave Quall, D-Mount Vernon,
-and Rep. Judy Clibborn, D-Mercer Island.

The list is much, much longer for the judicial branch of government, where lawyers tend to be understandably reluctant to challenge sitting judges for office.

Posted by Rich  |  18 Aug 5:44 PM
 

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