Lifestyle

How sure can one be of conclusions?
Heritage Hunting: Record density tests can help researcher prove his/her findings, Beverly Smith Vorpahl says.

Beverly Smith Vorpahl
The Spokesman-Review

It's necessary to "couch" when doing genealogy -- and not the kind of couch where you relax after a hard day's work. We must couch that which we cannot prove 100 percent, so we use subjective terms such as "probably," "possibly," "likely" and "maybe." We say great-great-grandmother Esther (Morgan) Jones was "possibly" born in 1865 because we have nothing that states the precise date she entered this world.

In a recent Ancestry.com column, Patricia Law Hatcher wrote about the concept of "record density," which can help determine your confidence in having reached a valid conclusion. Or not.

Hatcher, however, uses the flip side of the question "How likely is it that I am wrong?"

There are several components to record density, along with the issue of bias: records that were created; records that survive; records you have searched; and how deeply you searched the records.

Below are examples of each component of record density:

•Record creation varies significantly in various localities and in different time periods for the same locality. Some records, such as birth records, were not reported until relatively recent times. Consider the biases of your records: "Land taxes have a 100-percent bias toward people (usually adult white males) who owned land, whereas personal property or poll tax lists have a much broader coverage and occasionally even list slaves by name," she wrote. Regarding deed papers, researchers must investigate how common it was for deeds to be recorded in the time and place of interest.

•Do an extensive survey to determine what records survive for your time and place. Records maintained by political entities (town, counties, etc.) are more likely to have survived because there was an organized record-keeping structure in place.

•Examine your bias in searching: "This is the level at which most genealogical errors occur," Hatcher wrote. "You must search all major record groups. Too many researchers base conclusion on too few records. The likelihood that an unsearched record group holds the key to the correct (but very different) solution, is very, very high."

•Lack of thoroughness is the biggest pitfall for researchers. You might have searched all major groups but only skimmed them, which will result in couched answers of "maybe" or "possibly."

•Having analyzed what records were created, what survived, which ones you have researched and how deeply, strengthens the likelihood that your conclusion is correct or the likelihood that it's incorrect.

EWGS at the downtown library Saturday

Following coffee and cookies at 12:30, the Eastern Washington Genealogical Society will meet at 1 p.m. Saturday in the Conference Room of the downtown Spokane Main Public Library. Lethene Parks will present "Dear Albert and the Black Box, Identification and Preservation of Old Family Photos." All are welcome.

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