New Mexico State had the most prolific offense in the Sun Belt last season. North Texas has ruled the 2-year-old conference with its stingy defense. Middle Tennessee ranked in the upper half of both categories in 2002. North Texas was the runaway favorite in a preseason poll of Sun Belt coaches, media and sports information directors. New Mexico State was tabbed second and Middle Tennessee third. Idaho was picked seventh out of eight teams. Naturally, we refuse to go along. Middle Tennessee is coming off an injury-ravaged season and appears primed to make a title run. The school looks to be the Sun Belt's most balanced team. Many thought the Blue Raiders were the conference's most talented team last year, but they couldn't overcome several key injuries. In addition, the Blue Raiders, who must deal with a three-game road swing against Georgia, Clemson and Missouri, play New Mexico State and North Texas at home.
If we're wrong, the Sun Belt might have to wait nearly until Thanksgiving (Nov. 27) to crown a champion. North Texas visits New Mexico State on Nov. 25.
The conference, in predicted order of finish:
Middle Tennessee State
2002 record: 4-8, 2-4.
Head coach: Andy McCollum, 21-24, 5th season.
Returning starters: Seven on offense, eight on defense, kicker, punter.
When they play the Vandals: Oct. 18 in Moscow.
Outlook: Blue Raiders have a ton of experience back on defense, including three starters in the secondary and Chris Johnson, a starter last year until he broke his arm. Don Calloway gets full-time chance at running back with the graduation of Dwone Hicks. Quarterback Andrico Hines is a quality athlete, but he must improve on his passing statistics.
New Mexico State
2002 record: 7-5, 5-1 Sun Belt.
Head coach: Tony Samuel, 26-42, 7th season.
Returning starters: Six on offense, seven on defense, kicker.
When they play the Vandals: Oct. 4 in Las Cruces.
Outlook: Aggies have finished third and second the last two years, respectively. They led North Texas in the fourth quarter last year before faltering. NMSU is well-equipped to take the next step with two fine quarterbacks (Paul Dombrowski and Buck Pierce) and big-play running back Eric Higgins. Defense should be improved, if line comes through. Linebackers are among the best in the Sun Belt.
North Texas
2002 record: 8-5, 6-0.
Head coach: Darrell Dickey, 21-37, 6th season.
Returning starters: Four on offense, eight on defense, punter, kicker.
When they play the Vandals: Oct. 11 in Moscow.
Outlook: Two-time defending Sun Belt champs have won 11 straight conference games, but that streak should come to an end. Mean Green have issues on offense with a retooled line and an unsettled race at quarterback (Scott Hall or Andrew Smith). Neither was effective last year, though Hall missed most of the year with an injury. However, UNT's defense remains stocked with Sun Belt player of the year Brandon Kennedy anchoring the line and a strong crew of linebackers.
Arkansas State
2002 record: 6-7, 3-3.
Head coach: Steve Roberts, 6-7, 2nd season; 55-40-1 overall, 10th season.
Returning starters: Six on offense, nine on defense.
When they play the Vandals: Nov. 8 in Jonesboro.
Outlook: Indians surprisingly won six games last year and most of the defense returns, including standout tackles Jon Bradley and Corey Williams. Still, that unit gave up 63 points to Virginia Tech, 59 to Illinois and 52 to Mississippi. ASU could threaten if the offense holds up its end of the bargain. That would require QB Elliot Jacobs to build on a decent 2002 season.
Idaho
2002 record: 2-10, 1-5.
Head coach: Tom Cable, 8-26, 4th season.
Returning starters: Seven on offense, eight on defense, punter, return specialist.
Outlook: If the Vandals can survive another rugged non-conference slate with some confidence intact, they have a favorable Sun Belt schedule (North Texas and Middle Tennessee visit the Kibbie Dome). Defense could be strong if UI can generate a pass rush and safeties Robert Ortega and Darryl Murphy emerge. Special teams appear strong with punter Ryan Downes and return specialists Rod Bryant and Cedric Thompson. Offense needs to develop a consistent rushing attack, which could depend on the performance of two new starters on the line.
Louisiana-Lafayette
2002 record: 3-9, 2-4.
Head coach: Rickey Bustle, 3-9, 2nd season.
Returning starters: Five on offense, four on defense, punter, kicker, return specialist.
When they play the Vandals: Oct. 25 in Lafayette.
Outlook: Fred Stamps is a game-breaker at receiver, but Ragin' Cajuns need to have a quarterback who can get the ball into Stamps' hands. Senior Eric Rekieta (652 yards, 57.5 completion percentage in 2002) is battling freshman Jerry Babb. Defense has only four starters back, though linebacker Ross Brupbacher is a standout.
Utah State
2002 record: 4-7 (independent).
Head coach: Mick Dennehy, 13-20, 4th season; 62-45 overall, 11th season.
Returning starters: Five on offense, seven on defense.
When they play the Vandals: Nov. 22 in Moscow.
Outlook: After a nomadic couple years as an independent, the Aggies finally have a conference home. USU should compete immediately, as evidenced by their 32-30 win over New Mexico State last year and narrow losses to UL-Monroe and Middle Tennessee. Aggies should put points up, provided Travis Cox can handle quarterback and talented running back David Fiefia stays healthy. Stopping opponents is a bigger issue, particularly on the ground. USU gave up 234.8 rushing yards per game in 2002, which triggered the hire of new defensive coordinator David Kotulski and a switch to a 3-4 scheme.
Louisiana-Monroe
2002 record: 3-9, 2-4.
Head coach: Charlie Weatherbie, 1st season; 45-64, 11th season overall.
Returning starters: Nine on offense, eight on defense.
When they play the Vandals: Nov. 15 in Monroe.
Outlook: Indians had a rocky off-season with the dismissal of coach Mike Collins. But new coach Charlie Weatherbie inherited an experienced team that could climb the standings behind standouts like quarterback Steven Jyles, linebacker Maurice Sonnier and receiver Mack Vincent. Defense must improve.